Approximately half of all marriages in the U.S. will end in divorce. This disturbing statistic may lead pre-marriage couples to wonder if there are valid predictors of relationship struggles that can enable them to avoid divorce.
Research studies indicate there is one aspect of a couple's relationship—even observable in pre-marriage counseling—that correlates with the future demise of a marriage. This single factor isn't money, sex, or an external circumstance such as income, employment, or age. The single predictor of relationship success or failure is communication skill, specifically how a couple handles conflict.
John Gottman, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology at the University Of Washington who, with wife Julie, operates the Relationship Research Institute. Gottman claims the ability to predict a couple's eventual divorce with 90% accuracy after observing just five minutes of the couple's discussion of a conflict.
Marital researchers Scott M. Stanley, Ph.D., and Howard Markman, Ph.D., at the University of Denver describe similar prediction accuracies based on analysis of couples' interactions.
Factors Predicting Relationship Struggles and Divorce
Researchers' ability to predict divorce with such high accuracy provides a strong spark of hope for couples wanting to sustain a long term marital relationship. Learning how to communicate to save a marriage and prevent divorce might best start with looking at the types of interpersonal relations that seem to doom a marriage to failure.
Gottman identifies six significant factors observable in a couple's discussions which correlate with high risk for future divorce:
- Harsh Start Up: When a discussion begins harshly, with an accusation, an attitude of contempt, or other form of negativity, over ninety-five percent of the time it will also end harshly. Discussions which begin and end harshly are serious signals of communication difficulty and inability to resolve relationship conflicts.
- Four Horsemen: Gottman combines four behaviors into the second factor, describing them this way, "Usually these four horsemen clip-clop into the heart of a marriage in the following order: criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling." Of these, contempt is the most serious, signaling disgust and lack of respect.
- Flooding: One partner's overwhelming flood of negativity in a discussion leads to disengagement and stonewalling, preventing constructive resolution of a conflict.
- Body Language: A combination of any of the four horsemen and flooding can cause physiological changes observable in body language. A discussion reaching this state is not likely to be resolved, further signaling a failing relationship.
- Failed Repair Attempts: Despite past relationship difficulties, one partner may attempt to repair the relationship conflicts. Repeated failure of these repair attempts is another predictor of a serious relationship problem.
- Bad Memories: The final predictor of a failing marriage involves a couple's recollection of past events. When recall tends to bring back bad memories rather than the good times, a mental distortion can evolve which further dooms the relationship.
Skillful Conflict Resolution
Further reinforcing the importance of conflict resolution skills, a pre-marriage couples counseling course, PREP, focuses couples' counseling on constructive conflict resolution.
The PREP website indicates, "Thus, our analyses indicate that couples with dysfunctional premarital interaction patterns, especially a tendency to approach discussions of relationship issues with invalidation, negative affect, and withdrawal, are at risk for marital distress and divorce."
How to Save a Marriage From Divorce
Constructive conflict resolution courses are widely available and are an excellent place for couples to begin addressing this important factor in marital success. Couples might begin this process simply by observing the previously identified relationship-killers and structuring their communications to prevent falling into relationship damaging behaviors.
- Soft Start: The first step might take a clue from Gottman's initial divorce predictor, the harsh start-up to conflict discussions. Recalling that a discussion likely ends as it begins, couples can take extra care to initiate conflict discussions that aren't harsh, negative, and accusatory. Experts suggest beginning with calm statements such as, "When (event) happens I feel (name the feelings)."
- Remain Engaged: Withdrawing from a conflict discussion — whether physically or emotionally — is particularly damaging to a relationship. A report from the University of Michigan's Early Years of Marriage study calls withdrawal a particularly toxic (to the relationship) pattern of conflict.
- Reinforce Commitment: Reinforcing the couple's commitment to the relationship may be the most important factor in marriage success. This signals the relationship is important and enables creativity and effort devoted to preserving and strengthening the relationship.
Avoid Divorce with Conflict Resolution Skills
Marital research experts agree that conflict resolution skills are an important component of successful marriages. The behavior factors which predict divorce among couples are communication issues traceable to poor conflict resolution abilities. Awareness and avoidance of these communication traps can save a marriage.
Jerry Lopper - IPPA member, business and engineering degrees. Jerry's passion for personal development shows in 5 books, hundreds of articles & ...
Join the Conversation